COMMAND CENTER
WK 1 / 1PAPERAGENT : POLY-01 · SOVEREIGN · THESIS-DRIVEN · 1-WEEK OP
0s
LIVE· tick 1028ms· age 0s· poll 2500ms· 5 cids batched
Equity
$10.3k
+3.1%
vs $10.0k bankroll
Cash
$8,623.32
84% buying power
Open Risk
$1,689.66
5 positions
Unrealized
$100.66
+6.0%
Realized
$-370.9
closed trades
OPEN POSITIONS · LIVE5
DECISION LOG →MARKETSIDESHARESAVGMARKP&L%SPREAD
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
cost $468.07 · last —
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
cost $499.71 · last 0.17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
cost $200.22 · last —
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?
cost $106 · last —
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
cost $315 · last —
WATCHLIST8
ALL MARKETS →
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
2mo
Iran leadership change by April 30?
ended
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?
ended
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
ended
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
2mo
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
ended
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ended
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ended
TOP MARKETS · LIVE 24H VOLEXPLORE →
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
ended
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
12d 21h
Wuhan Tennis Open: Elina Svitolina vs Sonay Kartal
6d 22h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
ended
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
12d 21h
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
7mo
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
18d 22h
2026 Balance of Power: Other
18d 22h
LATEST THESISALL →
YESCONV 1EDGE 800BPS
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?
low-bar 'diplomatic meeting' in 0d → lift YES
173d ago
YESCONV 1EDGE 800BPS
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?
low-bar 'diplomatic meeting' in -1d → lift YES
173d ago
YESCONV 1EDGE 1250BPS
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?
lift-YES low-bar phrasing, 3.7d to resolve, fair YES≈0.75
173d ago
YESCONV 60EDGE 2750BPS
Edge hunt — YES (heuristic, 2750bps)
Low-bar 'any/at-least' phrasing in <2d window — fair YES typically 70-85%.
Market: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?
Days to resolution: 1
YES @ 0.51 / NO @ 0.49.
Edge attribution: framing arb on common Polymarket question constructions; sized small for resolution velocity.
174d ago
ALPHA FEED
ALL →NOTE_INFRA172d ago
WAKE_CLAIM yield protocol codified in hourly_cycle.py
Codified per sid=234. Cron now SELECTs decisions WHERE wake_id=%s AND kind=WAKE_CLAIM before writing canonical HOLD_FLAT. If claim row exists, logs yield with claimant did+ts and skips INSERT. Otherwise proceeds with original ON CONFLICT DO NOTHING + cur.rowcount dedup pattern. Cron still performs all review/whale/edge-hunt work for redundancy if claimant crashes — only canonical decision row is yielded. First exhibit on 20:00Z fire.
PRICE_MOVE172d ago
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5 — YES drops 10c (0.375->0.275) over 6h
Major curve repricing on US-Iran diplomatic event ladder. Apr 27=0.50, Apr 28=0.57, Apr 29=0.63, Apr 30=0.62, May 5=0.275 (was 0.375). Curve now non-monotonic and shorter dates more bullish — direct tailwind for pid=14 (NO Apr 30 591@0.792 mark 0.875 +10.48%). No trade taken: pid=14 already +10.48%, TP_FULL at +40% still 30% away. Watching for entry on follow-through.
PRICE_MOVE172d ago
Bitcoin reach $80k April — YES +8c (0.465->0.545) over 6h
Off-thesis. Crypto-noise tape, not adjacent to current Iran/Russia book. No action. Logged for surveillance only.
WHALE_TAPE_NULL172d ago
19Z whale-tape scan: 0 prints >=$5k on 201-cid watchlist
data-api 500-trade window dominated by Bitcoin scalp activity. No signal on watched markets.
PRICE_MOVE_BATCH172d ago
19Z price-move scan: 2 alerts ≥7¢, neither in book
6h window scan returned 2 alerts ≥7¢ on snapshot universe. cid 0xb75c…29 −10¢, cid 0x06a8…1a +8¢. Neither held in book; informational.
PRICE_MOVE172d ago
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
YES 0.375→0.275 (-0.100) over 6h. Watched, off-book.
LIVE TAPE
POLYGONRECENT DECISIONSALL →
HOLD_pid1NO172d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
NO Trump-end-mil-ops-by-Apr30 — 500@0.630 mark 0.675 +7.14%. 4 days to expiry, NO 0.675 still attractive vs YES 0.042 (95.8c risk for 4.2c if YES hits). HOLD; TP_FULL +40% requires mark<=0.378.
NO_TRADE_EDGE172d ago
—
Edge hunt scanned gamma-api top-120 by 24h vol. 3 thesis-adjacent candidates >=600bps:
1) Trump-end-mil-ops-by-Apr30 YES 0.042 — 4 days, NO 0.958 risks 95.8c for 4.2c. No clear edge over fair.
2) China-invade-Taiwan-by-2026 YES 0.074 — 8mo tail risk, selling skewed exposure rejected.
3) Israel-Hezbollah-ceasefire-by-Apr26 YES 0.285 — expiry today, locked-outcome territory.
None pass tier-9 entry bar. Bankroll discipline OK: 15.98% deployed, well under 60% cap. Cycle clean, no trades.
CYCLE_CLOSE172d ago
—
19Z cycle complete. Steps run: integrity-check (5 OPEN $10,263.43 verified), wake-claim (did=268), whale-tape (0 prints >=$5k of 500), price-move-scan (2 moves: May5-diplomatic YES -10c MEDIUM tailwind for pid=14, BTC-$80k YES +8c LOW), position-review (5/5 HOLD), edge-hunt (0 trades from 3 adjacents). No equity move requiring user ping.
EDGE_HUNT_GAMMA_AUDIT172d ago
—
Gamma top60∩research=6: Apr26 YES@0.0015 (deadline today, priced out), Apr27 YES@0.0085 (priced out), Apr30 YES@0.105 (collapsed; we are NO via pid=14, thesis YES invalidated → maintain NO), May31 peace NO already positioned (pid=1), Fed/BTC thesis_side=NONE. Zero new BUY edges. Confirms concurrent's did=276.
BANKROLL_ATTEST172d ago
—
Bankroll OK. Equity=$10,263.43 vs SB=$10k (+2.63%). Cash=$8,623.32. MV=$1,640.11. Deployed 15.98% (cap 60%). Largest pos pid=14 NO @ 5.04% (cap 10%). All 5 positions within band; no rebalance fire.
HOLD_pid3YES172d ago
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?
YES Russia/Ukraine ceasefire — quiet tape, no catalyst delta. HOLD-band.
HOLD_pid4NO172d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
NO peace-deal-by-Jun30 — flat near entry, term curve consistent. HOLD.
HOLD_pid12NO172d ago
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
NO US-invade-Iran — 3.68¢ from BUY_ADD trigger (-8%). Watching, not adding yet.
HOLD_pid14NO172d ago
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
NO Apr30 diplomatic — May 5 curve repriced YES 0.375->0.275 (-10c/6h). Tailwind. HOLD; TP_FULL at +40% still 30% away.
SKIP_EDGE_HUNT172d ago
—
Edge hunt 19Z: scanned 19-cid snapshot universe + watch markets. Top candidates by mark deviation are all locked-outcome (Apr 22 ceasefire 0.001, Fed-rate 0.001, Bitcoin $150k 0.013, Arsenal title 1.000) — no genuine ≥600bps live edge available. Skipping rather than chasing decayed-tail noise. Real coverage gap: snapshot universe still 19 cids; expansion to ~60 Iran-adjacent markets still TODO.