COMMAND CENTER
WK 1 / 1PAPERAGENT : POLY-01 · SOVEREIGN · THESIS-DRIVEN · 1-WEEK OP
0s
LIVE· tick 44ms· age 0s· poll 2500ms· 5 cids batched
Equity
$10.3k
+3.1%
vs $10.0k bankroll
Cash
$8,623.32
84% buying power
Open Risk
$1,689.66
5 positions
Unrealized
$100.66
+6.0%
Realized
$-370.9
closed trades
OPEN POSITIONS · LIVE5
DECISION LOG →MARKETSIDESHARESAVGMARKP&L%SPREAD
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
cost $468.07 · last —
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
cost $499.71 · last 0.16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
cost $200.22 · last —
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?
cost $106 · last —
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
cost $315 · last —
WATCHLIST8
ALL MARKETS →
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
4mo
Iran leadership change by April 30?
ended
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?
ended
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
ended
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
4mo
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
ended
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ended
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ended
TOP MARKETS · LIVE 24H VOLEXPLORE →
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-08-15?
ended
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)
4h 47m
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A
0h 47m
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
ended
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
15d 0h
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
9mo
Cincinnati Open: Emma Navarro vs Anhelina Kalinina
6d 14h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
1mo
LATEST THESISALL →
YESCONV 1EDGE 800BPS
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?
low-bar 'diplomatic meeting' in 0d → lift YES
112d ago
YESCONV 1EDGE 800BPS
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?
low-bar 'diplomatic meeting' in -1d → lift YES
112d ago
YESCONV 1EDGE 1250BPS
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?
lift-YES low-bar phrasing, 3.7d to resolve, fair YES≈0.75
112d ago
YESCONV 60EDGE 2750BPS
Edge hunt — YES (heuristic, 2750bps)
Low-bar 'any/at-least' phrasing in <2d window — fair YES typically 70-85%.
Market: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?
Days to resolution: 1
YES @ 0.51 / NO @ 0.49.
Edge attribution: framing arb on common Polymarket question constructions; sized small for resolution velocity.
112d ago
ALPHA FEED
ALL →NOTE_INFRA111d ago
WAKE_CLAIM yield protocol codified in hourly_cycle.py
Codified per sid=234. Cron now SELECTs decisions WHERE wake_id=%s AND kind=WAKE_CLAIM before writing canonical HOLD_FLAT. If claim row exists, logs yield with claimant did+ts and skips INSERT. Otherwise proceeds with original ON CONFLICT DO NOTHING + cur.rowcount dedup pattern. Cron still performs all review/whale/edge-hunt work for redundancy if claimant crashes — only canonical decision row is yielded. First exhibit on 20:00Z fire.
PRICE_MOVE111d ago
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5 — YES drops 10c (0.375->0.275) over 6h
Major curve repricing on US-Iran diplomatic event ladder. Apr 27=0.50, Apr 28=0.57, Apr 29=0.63, Apr 30=0.62, May 5=0.275 (was 0.375). Curve now non-monotonic and shorter dates more bullish — direct tailwind for pid=14 (NO Apr 30 591@0.792 mark 0.875 +10.48%). No trade taken: pid=14 already +10.48%, TP_FULL at +40% still 30% away. Watching for entry on follow-through.
PRICE_MOVE111d ago
Bitcoin reach $80k April — YES +8c (0.465->0.545) over 6h
Off-thesis. Crypto-noise tape, not adjacent to current Iran/Russia book. No action. Logged for surveillance only.
WHALE_TAPE_NULL111d ago
19Z whale-tape scan: 0 prints >=$5k on 201-cid watchlist
data-api 500-trade window dominated by Bitcoin scalp activity. No signal on watched markets.
PRICE_MOVE_BATCH111d ago
19Z price-move scan: 2 alerts ≥7¢, neither in book
6h window scan returned 2 alerts ≥7¢ on snapshot universe. cid 0xb75c…29 −10¢, cid 0x06a8…1a +8¢. Neither held in book; informational.
PRICE_MOVE111d ago
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
YES 0.375→0.275 (-0.100) over 6h. Watched, off-book.
LIVE TAPE
POLYGONRECENT DECISIONSALL →
HOLD_pid1NO111d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
NO Trump-end-mil-ops-by-Apr30 — 500@0.630 mark 0.675 +7.14%. 4 days to expiry, NO 0.675 still attractive vs YES 0.042 (95.8c risk for 4.2c if YES hits). HOLD; TP_FULL +40% requires mark<=0.378.
NO_TRADE_EDGE111d ago
—
Edge hunt scanned gamma-api top-120 by 24h vol. 3 thesis-adjacent candidates >=600bps:
1) Trump-end-mil-ops-by-Apr30 YES 0.042 — 4 days, NO 0.958 risks 95.8c for 4.2c. No clear edge over fair.
2) China-invade-Taiwan-by-2026 YES 0.074 — 8mo tail risk, selling skewed exposure rejected.
3) Israel-Hezbollah-ceasefire-by-Apr26 YES 0.285 — expiry today, locked-outcome territory.
None pass tier-9 entry bar. Bankroll discipline OK: 15.98% deployed, well under 60% cap. Cycle clean, no trades.
CYCLE_CLOSE111d ago
—
19Z cycle complete. Steps run: integrity-check (5 OPEN $10,263.43 verified), wake-claim (did=268), whale-tape (0 prints >=$5k of 500), price-move-scan (2 moves: May5-diplomatic YES -10c MEDIUM tailwind for pid=14, BTC-$80k YES +8c LOW), position-review (5/5 HOLD), edge-hunt (0 trades from 3 adjacents). No equity move requiring user ping.
EDGE_HUNT_GAMMA_AUDIT111d ago
—
Gamma top60∩research=6: Apr26 YES@0.0015 (deadline today, priced out), Apr27 YES@0.0085 (priced out), Apr30 YES@0.105 (collapsed; we are NO via pid=14, thesis YES invalidated → maintain NO), May31 peace NO already positioned (pid=1), Fed/BTC thesis_side=NONE. Zero new BUY edges. Confirms concurrent's did=276.
BANKROLL_ATTEST111d ago
—
Bankroll OK. Equity=$10,263.43 vs SB=$10k (+2.63%). Cash=$8,623.32. MV=$1,640.11. Deployed 15.98% (cap 60%). Largest pos pid=14 NO @ 5.04% (cap 10%). All 5 positions within band; no rebalance fire.
HOLD_pid3YES111d ago
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?
YES Russia/Ukraine ceasefire — quiet tape, no catalyst delta. HOLD-band.
HOLD_pid4NO111d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
NO peace-deal-by-Jun30 — flat near entry, term curve consistent. HOLD.
HOLD_pid12NO111d ago
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
NO US-invade-Iran — 3.68¢ from BUY_ADD trigger (-8%). Watching, not adding yet.
HOLD_pid14NO111d ago
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
NO Apr30 diplomatic — May 5 curve repriced YES 0.375->0.275 (-10c/6h). Tailwind. HOLD; TP_FULL at +40% still 30% away.
SKIP_EDGE_HUNT111d ago
—
Edge hunt 19Z: scanned 19-cid snapshot universe + watch markets. Top candidates by mark deviation are all locked-outcome (Apr 22 ceasefire 0.001, Fed-rate 0.001, Bitcoin $150k 0.013, Arsenal title 1.000) — no genuine ≥600bps live edge available. Skipping rather than chasing decayed-tail noise. Real coverage gap: snapshot universe still 19 cids; expansion to ~60 Iran-adjacent markets still TODO.